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Probability Calculator

What are the odds you'll draw your combo by turn five? Let's do the math — and the magic. ✨

Hypergeometric Math

Import from Decks

Per-Turn Analysis

Import from My Decks

Pick a deck to auto-fill N. Add a match term or select cards to set K.

Deck size (N)

Desired cards (K)

Opening hand

Turns to draw

At least (k)

Draws by turn 4: 11

Draws by end of turn: 11

71.0%

Hypergeometric distribution (draws without replacement)

You see 11 cards in total — 7 from the opening hand and 4 more by turn 4.

There are 10 hits in your 99-card deck.

Miss chance = C(89, 11) ÷ C(99, 11) ≈ 28.97%.

Hit chance = 1 − miss ≈ 71.03%, or roughly once every 1.4 games.

Commander context: that percentage is a good rule of thumb for a singleton deck aiming to find this effect.

T0	T1	T2	T3	T4
53.7%	58.7%	63.3%	67.4%	71.0%

Quick Presets

Options

On the draw

Extra draws/turn

How to read this: we use the hypergeometric distribution (drawing without replacement) to estimate the probability of seeing at least k copies in your draws. Assumptions: independent shuffles, one or more cards drawn per turn as configured.