What is hypergeometric probability in MTG?

Drawing without replacement: each card drawn changes the deck. The formula gives the chance of drawing at least N of your target cards by a given turn.

Why does play vs draw matter?

On the draw you get one extra card before the game starts, which improves your odds of hitting key cards.

Can I model specific cards like Sol Ring?

Yes. Set 'hits in deck' to the number of copies (e.g. 1 for Sol Ring) and see the probability of drawing it by turn N.

What is the color requirement solver?

Advanced mode lets you specify color sources (e.g. 10 white, 10 blue) and requirements (e.g. need WW by turn 3) to see the probability of having correct mana.

MTG Probability Calculator

The MTG probability calculator answers questions like "What are the odds I draw at least one Sol Ring by turn 2?" or "How many copies of my combo piece do I need to see it in 4 turns?" Magic uses drawing without replacement, so the standard hypergeometric formula accounts for your deck shrinking as you draw.

Opening Hand and Draw Odds

Set deck size (100 for Commander), number of "hits" in the deck (e.g. lands or a specific card), hand size, and turns. The calculator shows the probability of drawing at least N of your target cards by the given turn. Play or draw affects your card count — toggle for accuracy.

Color Requirements and Ramp

Advanced mode lets you configure color sources and requirements (e.g. "need UU by turn 3") or model ramp and removal density. Load a deck from ManaTap to auto-fill values, or enter them manually for any decklist.

FAQ

What is hypergeometric probability in MTG?: Drawing without replacement: each card drawn changes the deck. The formula gives the chance of drawing at least N of your target cards by a given turn.
Why does play vs draw matter?: On the draw you get one extra card before the game starts, which improves your odds of hitting key cards.
Can I model specific cards like Sol Ring?: Yes. Set 'hits in deck' to the number of copies (e.g. 1 for Sol Ring) and see the probability of drawing it by turn N.
What is the color requirement solver?: Advanced mode lets you specify color sources (e.g. 10 white, 10 blue) and requirements (e.g. need WW by turn 3) to see the probability of having correct mana.

Use Probability Calculator →