ManaTap Logo
Explore ManaTap Tools
AI WorkshopDeck CheckerBuild a DeckBudget SwapsPrice TrackerMulligan + Probability
🃏

Mulligan Simulator

Test your deck's consistency with real opening hand simulations. See keep rates for 7/6/5 card hands using London mulligan rules. Customize land requirements, key cards, and mana ratios to optimize your deck's performance.

Commander, Modern, Pioneer, Standard, and Pauper are the formats we support most directly here. The free first-mulligan toggle is specifically for Commander.

London Mulligan
Keep Rate Analysis
10,000 Simulations
Deck Input
Paste your decklist below, or use the example deck.
Import from My Decks
Pick a deck to auto-fill N. Add a match term or select cards to set K.
Iterations
k:
Probability Helper

Draw Odds Calculator

The old Probability page now lives here, directly under the mulligan simulator, so hand testing and draw math stay together.

Import from My Decks
Pick a deck to auto-fill N. Add a match term or select cards to set K.
Paste Your Decklist

Pick a deck above to auto-fill N and the list. Add a match term or select cards to set K.

Draws by turn 4: 11
Draws by end of turn: 11
71.0%
Hypergeometric distribution (draws without replacement)

You see 11 cards in total — 7 from the opening hand and 4 more by turn 4.

There are 10 hits in your 99-card deck.

Miss chance = C(89, 11) ÷ C(99, 11) ≈ 28.97%.

Hit chance = 1 − miss ≈ 71.03%, or roughly once every 1.4 games.

Commander context: that percentage is a good rule of thumb for a singleton deck aiming to find this effect.

T0T1T2T3T4
53.7%58.7%63.3%67.4%71.0%
Quick Presets
Options
How to read this: we use the hypergeometric distribution (drawing without replacement) to estimate the probability of seeing at least k copies in your draws. Assumptions: independent shuffles, one or more cards drawn per turn as configured.