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Mulligan Simulator
See how often your deck gives you a keepable opening hand, and how many mulligans it may take.
London Mulligan
Keep Rate Analysis
10,000 Simulations
Deck Input
Paste your decklist below, or use the example deck.
Import from My Decks
Pick a deck to auto-fill N. Add a match term or select cards to set K.
Simulations
Desired cards needed:
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Ready to test your opening hands
Choose your keep rules, then run the simulation.
Probability Helper
Draw Odds Calculator
The old Probability page now lives here, directly under the mulligan simulator, so hand testing and draw math stay together.
Draws by turn 4: 11
Draws by end of turn: 11
71.0%
Hypergeometric distribution (draws without replacement)
You see 11 cards in total — 7 from the opening hand and 4 more by turn 4.
There are 10 hits in your 99-card deck.
Miss chance = C(89, 11) ÷ C(99, 11) ≈ 28.97%.
Hit chance = 1 − miss ≈ 71.03%, or roughly once every 1.4 games.
Commander context: that percentage is a good rule of thumb for a singleton deck aiming to find this effect.
| T0 | T1 | T2 | T3 | T4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 53.7% | 58.7% | 63.3% | 67.4% | 71.0% |
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How to read this: we use the hypergeometric distribution (drawing without replacement) to estimate the probability of seeing at least k copies in your draws. Assumptions: independent shuffles, one or more cards drawn per turn as configured.